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Serie A · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 17:30 · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Bologna9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Cagliari12th place
BOL 54%X 26%CAG 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Cagliari 0.2.
  • Bologna lead by 104 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bologna 0.1, Cagliari -0.6.
  • If Bologna score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Cagliari score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.546%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X26%3.82219%5.17
Double chance
1X81%1.24X246%2.201274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bologna · Columns: Cagliari1-0 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Cagliari – Bologna24 October 20260-2
Bologna – Cagliari3 May 20260-0
Cagliari – Bologna19 October 20250-2
Bologna – Cagliari2 March 20252-1
Cagliari – Bologna29 October 20240-2
Cagliari – Bologna14 January 20242-1