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Serie A · Matchday 32Sunday 18 April · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lazio1st place
ROM 50%X 27%LAZ 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • Roma lead by 61 rating points.
  • Derby match.
  • If Roma score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X27%3.77224%4.22
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%1.991273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Roma – Lazio17 May 20262-0
Lazio – Roma21 September 20250-1
Lazio – Roma13 April 20251-1
Roma – Lazio5 January 20252-0
Roma – Lazio6 April 20241-0
Lazio – Roma12 November 20230-0