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La Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Real Betis4th place
ATH 45%X 27%BET 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Real Betis -0.2.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Real Betis score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X27%3.70228%3.53
Double chance
1X72%1.40X255%1.811273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Real Betis1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Athletic Bilbao – Real Betis22 March 20262-1
Real Betis – Athletic Bilbao31 August 20251-2
Real Betis – Athletic Bilbao2 February 20252-2
Athletic Bilbao – Real Betis3 November 20241-1
Real Betis – Athletic Bilbao25 February 20243-1
Athletic Bilbao – Real Betis27 August 20234-2