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La Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Real Sociedad5th place
BAR 83%X 12%RSO 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 266 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Real Sociedad -0.3.
  • Barcelona take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 20% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.6 – 1.1
Over 2.584%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.21X12%8.3325%18.52
Double chance
1X95%1.06X217%5.741288%1.14
Goals
Over 2.584%1.19Under 2.516%6.39BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Real Sociedad3-1 probability 7.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Sociedad – Barcelona18 January 20262-1
Barcelona – Real Sociedad28 September 20252-1
Barcelona – Real Sociedad2 March 20254-0
Real Sociedad – Barcelona10 November 20241-0
Barcelona – Real Sociedad13 May 20242-0
Real Sociedad – Barcelona4 November 20230-1