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La Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Estadio Abanca-Riazor
Deportivo13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
DEP 13%X 20%RMA 67%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 265 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Deportivo 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Deportivo -0.0.
  • If Deportivo score first, they win 39% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 86% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
113%7.69X20%4.93267%1.50
Double chance
1X33%3.00X287%1.151280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Deportivo · Columns: Real Madrid0-2 probability 12.4%

Form

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