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La Liga · Matchday 17Sunday 20 December · 16:00 · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Villarreal9th place
OSA 29%X 27%VIL 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Villarreal lead by 131 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Osasuna 0.1.
  • If Osasuna score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.50X27%3.72245%2.25
Double chance
1X55%1.80X271%1.401273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.87Under 2.546%2.15BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Osasuna · Columns: Villarreal1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Osasuna – Villarreal31 January 20262-2
Villarreal – Osasuna20 September 20252-1
Villarreal – Osasuna3 May 20254-2
Osasuna – Villarreal24 November 20242-2
Osasuna – Villarreal25 May 20241-1
Villarreal – Osasuna26 November 20233-1