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La Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · San Mamés Barria
Athletic Bilbao7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Racing Santander16th place
ATH 70%X 19%RAC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Athletic Bilbao lead by 104 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Racing Santander -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Racing Santander 0.8.
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.0
Over 2.567%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X19%5.39212%8.67
Double chance
1X88%1.13X230%3.321281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.03BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Athletic Bilbao · Columns: Racing Santander2-0 probability 9.8%

Form

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