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La Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Sevilla6th place
BAR 82%X 13%SEV 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 309 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Sevilla -0.4.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Sevilla 0.8.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Sevilla score first, they win 20% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.4 – 1.0
Over 2.581%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
182%1.22X13%7.9925%18.76
Double chance
1X95%1.06X218%5.601287%1.14
Goals
Over 2.581%1.23Under 2.519%5.30BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Sevilla3-0 probability 8.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sevilla – Barcelona19 September 20261-3
Barcelona – Sevilla15 March 20265-2
Sevilla – Barcelona5 October 20254-1
Sevilla – Barcelona9 February 20251-4
Barcelona – Sevilla20 October 20245-1
Sevilla – Barcelona26 May 20241-2