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La Liga · Matchday 30Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
RMA 60%X 23%ATM 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • Real Madrid lead by 64 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Atlético Madrid 0.5.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.554%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.65X23%4.33216%6.09
Double chance
1X84%1.20X240%2.531277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Atlético Madrid1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid20 September 20262-1
Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid22 March 20263-2
Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid27 September 20255-2
Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid8 February 20251-1
Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid29 September 20241-1
Real Madrid – Atlético Madrid4 February 20241-1