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La Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Espanyol14th place
ATM 69%X 20%ESP 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 199 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Espanyol -0.5.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.45X20%4.97211%9.31
Double chance
1X89%1.12X231%3.241280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes43%2.31BTTS no57%1.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Espanyol2-0 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Espanyol – Atlético Madrid17 October 20260-1
Atlético Madrid – Espanyol21 February 20264-2
Espanyol – Atlético Madrid17 August 20252-1
Espanyol – Atlético Madrid29 March 20251-1
Atlético Madrid – Espanyol28 August 20240-0
Espanyol – Atlético Madrid24 May 20233-3