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La Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
RAY 17%X 22%RMA 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 218 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Rayo Vallecano -0.3.
  • Real Madrid take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.553%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Real Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.75X22%4.45260%1.66
Double chance
1X40%2.51X283%1.211278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rayo Vallecano · Columns: Real Madrid1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano12 September 20264-1
Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano1 February 20262-1
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid9 November 20250-0
Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano9 March 20252-1
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid14 December 20243-3
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid18 February 20241-1