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La Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Valencia19th place
BAR 83%X 12%VAL 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 311 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Valencia -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Valencia 1.0.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Valencia score first, they win 20% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.2 – 0.8
Over 2.575%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.20X12%8.4525%20.83
Double chance
1X95%1.05X217%6.011288%1.13
Goals
Over 2.575%1.33Under 2.525%4.01BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Valencia3-0 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Valencia – Barcelona6 September 20260-5
Valencia – Barcelona23 May 20263-1
Barcelona – Valencia14 September 20256-0
Barcelona – Valencia26 January 20257-1
Valencia – Barcelona17 August 20241-2
Barcelona – Valencia29 April 20244-2