TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
La Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 31 January · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Alavés11th place
MAL 27%X 28%ALA 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alavés lead by 86 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alavés -0.3, Málaga -0.8.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Alavés score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.545%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alavés win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.76X28%3.58245%2.20
Double chance
1X55%1.83X273%1.361272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Alavés1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →
MálagaLDLDL
AlavésDLLDL

Head to head

Alavés – Málaga23 October 20261-1