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La Liga · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Rayo Vallecano11th place
ATM 62%X 23%RAY 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 153 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Rayo Vallecano 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Rayo Vallecano -0.3.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.63X23%4.32215%6.51
Double chance
1X85%1.18X239%2.601277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Rayo Vallecano2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid15 February 20263-0
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano24 September 20253-2
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano24 April 20253-0
Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid22 September 20241-1
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano31 January 20242-1
Rayo Vallecano – Atlético Madrid28 August 20230-7