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La Liga · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Celta Vigo10th place
MAL 27%X 28%CEL 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Celta Vigo lead by 109 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Celta Vigo 1.6 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Celta Vigo -0.3, Málaga -0.8.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.544%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Celta Vigo win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.74X28%3.57245%2.21
Double chance
1X55%1.83X273%1.371272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.544%2.28Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Celta Vigo1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

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Head to head

Celta Vigo – Málaga13 September 20261-1