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La Liga · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Barcelona1st place
RSO 14%X 19%BAR 68%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 266 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Real Sociedad -0.3.
  • Barcelona take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 35% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.7
Over 2.576%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%7.23X19%5.38268%1.48
Double chance
1X32%3.08X286%1.161281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.576%1.31Under 2.524%4.21BTTS yes67%1.48BTTS no33%3.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Barcelona1-2 probability 8.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Sociedad – Barcelona18 January 20262-1
Barcelona – Real Sociedad28 September 20252-1
Barcelona – Real Sociedad2 March 20254-0
Real Sociedad – Barcelona10 November 20241-0
Barcelona – Real Sociedad13 May 20242-0
Real Sociedad – Barcelona4 November 20230-1