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La Liga · Matchday 36Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Racing Santander16th place
RMA 87%X 10%RAC 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 310 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Racing Santander -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Racing Santander 0.8.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Racing Santander score first, they win 16% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.8 – 0.9
Over 2.585%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
187%1.15X10%10.4324%26.25
Double chance
1X96%1.04X213%7.461290%1.11
Goals
Over 2.585%1.18Under 2.515%6.49BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Racing Santander3-0 probability 8.3%

Form

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Head to head

Racing Santander – Real Madrid1 November 20260-3