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Bundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday 10 October · 14:30 · WWK Arena
Augsburg10th place
Full time2-2Prediction wrong
Bayern Munich1st place
FCA 11%X 16%FCB 72%

What does the market say?

AugsburgDrawBayern MunichRinvalo11%16%72%
Market8%12%80%

✓ Agree · both back Bayern Munich

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 248 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 1.5, Augsburg -0.3.
  • Last 5 games: Bayern Munich 2.6 points per game, Augsburg 1.4.
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 31% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.8
Over 2.576%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%8.77X16%6.09272%1.39
Double chance
1X28%3.60X289%1.131284%1.20
Goals
Over 2.576%1.32Under 2.524%4.10BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Augsburg · Columns: Bayern Munich2-2 probability 4.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Bayern Munich10 October 20262-2
Bayern Munich – Augsburg24 January 20261-2
Augsburg – Bayern Munich30 August 20252-3
Augsburg – Bayern Munich4 April 20251-3
Bayern Munich – Augsburg22 November 20243-0
Augsburg – Bayern Munich27 January 20242-3