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Bundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday 10 October · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Full time3-4Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Leverkusen6th place
M05 34%X 27%B04 39%

What does the market say?

MainzDrawLeverkusenRinvalo34%27%39%
Market32%24%43%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 84 rating points.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.557%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.94X27%3.75239%2.55
Double chance
1X61%1.65X266%1.521273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.34BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Leverkusen3-4 probability 0.6% · final score

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Leverkusen10 October 20263-4
Leverkusen – Mainz28 February 20261-1
Mainz – Leverkusen18 October 20253-4
Mainz – Leverkusen17 May 20252-2
Leverkusen – Mainz14 January 20251-0
Leverkusen – Mainz23 February 20242-1