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Bundesliga · Matchday 5Sunday 11 October · 14:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Exact score
M'gladbach18th place
KOE 55%X 24%BMG 21%

What does the market say?

KölnDrawM'gladbachRinvalo55%24%21%
Market47%24%29%

✓ Agree · both back Köln

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Köln 0.2, M'gladbach -0.9.
  • If Köln score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.2
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Köln win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X24%4.15221%4.71
Double chance
1X79%1.27X245%2.211276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.58BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: M'gladbach2-1 probability 9.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – M'gladbach11 October 20262-1
Köln – M'gladbach21 March 20263-3
M'gladbach – Köln8 November 20253-1
M'gladbach – Köln9 March 20243-3
Köln – M'gladbach22 October 20233-1
Köln – M'gladbach2 April 20230-0