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Bundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday 10 October · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Full time2-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Hamburg15th place
TSG 60%X 23%HSV 17%

What does the market say?

HoffenheimDrawHamburgRinvalo60%23%17%
Market67%19%15%

✓ Agree · both back Hoffenheim

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 86 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.1, Hamburg -1.0.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Over 2.563%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.66X23%4.38217%5.91
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.521277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.68BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Hamburg2-3 probability 1.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Hoffenheim – Hamburg10 October 20262-3
Hamburg – Hoffenheim25 April 20261-2
Hoffenheim – Hamburg13 December 20254-1