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Bundesliga · Matchday 5Sunday 11 October · 16:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Schalke 0417th place
SCF 65%X 22%S04 13%

What does the market say?

FreiburgDrawSchalke 04Rinvalo65%22%13%
Market57%24%19%

✓ Agree · both back Freiburg

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 126 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Freiburg 2.6 points per game, Schalke 04 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.5, Schalke 04 -0.8.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.545%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X22%4.53213%7.62
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.841278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.545%2.20Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes42%2.40BTTS no58%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Schalke 042-1 probability 9.2% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Schalke 0411 October 20262-1
Freiburg – Schalke 0423 April 20234-0
Schalke 04 – Freiburg30 October 20220-2