TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 5Friday 9 October · 19:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✕ Missed
Werder Bremen5th place
BVB 68%X 20%SVW 11%

What does the market say?

DortmundDrawWerder BremenRinvalo68%20%11%
Market71%17%12%

✓ Agree · both back Dortmund

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 217 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 3.0 points per game, Werder Bremen 1.4.
  • Dortmund take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.9
Over 2.560%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.46X20%4.90211%8.82
Double chance
1X89%1.13X232%3.151280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Werder Bremen2-2 probability 4.1% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Werder Bremen9 October 20262-2
Werder Bremen – Dortmund16 May 20260-2
Dortmund – Werder Bremen13 January 20263-0
Dortmund – Werder Bremen25 January 20252-2
Werder Bremen – Dortmund31 August 20240-0
Werder Bremen – Dortmund9 March 20241-2