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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · WWK Arena
Augsburg10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Dortmund2nd place
FCA 26%X 25%BVB 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 185 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 1.8 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Augsburg -0.5.
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.85X25%3.95249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X274%1.351275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Augsburg · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Augsburg14 March 20262-0
Augsburg – Dortmund31 October 20250-1
Dortmund – Augsburg8 March 20250-1
Augsburg – Dortmund26 October 20242-1
Dortmund – Augsburg4 May 20245-1
Augsburg – Dortmund16 December 20231-1