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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Hamburg15th place
S04 32%X 30%HSV 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Hamburg 1.8 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.2
Over 2.537%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Hamburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.16X30%3.38239%2.58
Double chance
1X61%1.63X268%1.461270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.537%2.70Under 2.563%1.59BTTS yes45%2.24BTTS no55%1.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Hamburg1-1 probability 14.3%

Form

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