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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Mainz9th place
SCF 51%X 26%M05 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 69 rating points.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X26%3.87223%4.32
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.041274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Freiburg12 April 20260-1
Freiburg – Mainz30 November 20254-0
Mainz – Freiburg15 March 20252-2
Freiburg – Mainz3 November 20240-0
Freiburg – Mainz21 April 20241-1
Mainz – Freiburg3 December 20230-1