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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
B04 55%X 24%SVW 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 75 rating points.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Over 2.565%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X24%4.13221%4.82
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.231276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.73

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Werder Bremen1-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Werder Bremen24 January 20261-0
Werder Bremen – Leverkusen30 August 20253-3
Leverkusen – Werder Bremen8 March 20250-2
Werder Bremen – Leverkusen26 October 20242-2
Leverkusen – Werder Bremen14 April 20245-0
Werder Bremen – Leverkusen25 November 20230-3