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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Stuttgart11th place
FCU 27%X 25%VFB 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Stuttgart lead by 151 rating points.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Stuttgart win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.64X25%3.94247%2.12
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.381275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.45BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Stuttgart1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stuttgart – Union Berlin18 January 20261-1
Union Berlin – Stuttgart23 August 20252-1
Union Berlin – Stuttgart19 April 20254-4
Stuttgart – Union Berlin6 December 20243-2
Stuttgart – Union Berlin8 March 20242-0
Union Berlin – Stuttgart21 October 20230-3