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Bundesliga · Matchday 30Saturday 17 April · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Köln13th place
RBL 68%X 20%KOE 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 178 rating points.
  • RB Leipzig take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Köln -0.1.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 1.0
Over 2.565%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X20%5.00212%8.10
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.091280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Köln2-0 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – RB Leipzig8 February 20261-2
RB Leipzig – Köln20 September 20253-1
Köln – RB Leipzig15 March 20241-5
RB Leipzig – Köln28 October 20236-0
Köln – RB Leipzig4 February 20230-0
RB Leipzig – Köln13 August 20222-2