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Bundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday 24 October · 14:30 · WWK Arena
Augsburg10th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Union Berlin16th place
FCA 54%X 26%FCU 21%

What does the market say?

AugsburgDrawUnion BerlinRinvalo54%26%21%
Market51%24%25%

✓ Agree · both back Augsburg

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Augsburg lead by 95 rating points.
  • Augsburg take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Augsburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.87X26%3.92221%4.78
Double chance
1X79%1.26X246%2.151274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes56%1.77BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Augsburg · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 11.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Union Berlin24 October 20261-1
Union Berlin – Augsburg16 May 20264-0
Augsburg – Union Berlin15 January 20261-1
Augsburg – Union Berlin17 May 20251-2
Union Berlin – Augsburg15 January 20250-2
Augsburg – Union Berlin12 April 20242-0