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Bundesliga · Matchday 7Sunday 25 October · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Leverkusen6th place
TSG 36%X 26%B04 38%

What does the market say?

HoffenheimDrawLeverkusenRinvalo36%26%38%
Market35%24%41%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 98 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.6 points per game, Hoffenheim 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.7, Hoffenheim 0.1.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.7
Over 2.566%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.74X26%3.84238%2.67
Double chance
1X62%1.60X264%1.571274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.97BTTS yes68%1.48BTTS no32%3.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Leverkusen3-0 probability 2.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Hoffenheim – Leverkusen25 October 20263-0
Hoffenheim – Leverkusen17 January 20261-0
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim23 August 20251-2
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim2 February 20253-1
Hoffenheim – Leverkusen14 September 20241-4
Leverkusen – Hoffenheim30 March 20242-1