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Bundesliga · Matchday 7Sunday 25 October · 16:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Full time1-3Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Bayern Munich1st place
SCF 16%X 20%FCB 63%

What does the market say?

FreiburgDrawBayern MunichRinvalo16%20%63%
Market15%16%69%

✓ Agree · both back Bayern Munich

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 204 rating points.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 1.5, Freiburg 0.5.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 39% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.6
Over 2.574%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.13X20%4.94263%1.58
Double chance
1X37%2.74X284%1.191280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.574%1.35Under 2.526%3.85BTTS yes68%1.48BTTS no32%3.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Bayern Munich1-3 probability 7.7% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Bayern Munich25 October 20261-3
Freiburg – Bayern Munich4 April 20262-3
Bayern Munich – Freiburg22 November 20256-2
Freiburg – Bayern Munich25 January 20251-2
Bayern Munich – Freiburg1 September 20242-0
Freiburg – Bayern Munich1 March 20242-2