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Bundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday 24 October · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Full time2-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Werder Bremen5th place
M05 53%X 26%SVW 21%

What does the market say?

MainzDrawWerder BremenRinvalo53%26%21%
Market54%23%22%

✓ Agree · both back Mainz

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Mainz lead by 61 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Werder Bremen -0.4.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.553%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X26%3.90221%4.71
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.131274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Werder Bremen2-3 probability 1.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Werder Bremen24 October 20262-3
Werder Bremen – Mainz15 March 20260-2
Mainz – Werder Bremen1 November 20251-1
Werder Bremen – Mainz31 January 20251-0
Mainz – Werder Bremen15 September 20241-2
Mainz – Werder Bremen3 February 20240-1