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Bundesliga · Matchday 7Friday 23 October · 19:30 · MHP Arena
Stuttgart11th place
Full time2-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
M'gladbach18th place
VFB 70%X 18%BMG 11%

What does the market say?

StuttgartDrawM'gladbachRinvalo70%18%11%
Market70%16%13%

✓ Agree · both back Stuttgart

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Stuttgart lead by 146 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Stuttgart -0.2, M'gladbach -0.9.
  • Stuttgart take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.6 – 1.0
Over 2.570%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.42X18%5.46211%8.79
Double chance
1X89%1.13X230%3.371282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.570%1.43Under 2.530%3.33BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Stuttgart · Columns: M'gladbach2-3 probability 1.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Stuttgart – M'gladbach23 October 20262-3
M'gladbach – Stuttgart25 January 20260-3
Stuttgart – M'gladbach30 August 20251-0
Stuttgart – M'gladbach1 February 20251-2
M'gladbach – Stuttgart14 September 20241-3
Stuttgart – M'gladbach18 May 20244-0