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Eredivisie · Matchday 32Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Ajax2nd place
AZ 38%X 27%AJA 35%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 64% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.65X27%3.72235%2.82
Double chance
1X65%1.55X262%1.601273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – AZ Alkmaar31 October 20261-0
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax8 February 20261-1
Ajax – AZ Alkmaar18 October 20250-2
Ajax – AZ Alkmaar16 March 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax8 December 20242-1
AZ Alkmaar – Ajax25 February 20242-0