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Eredivisie · Matchday 32Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Excelsior15th place
PSV 80%X 13%EXC 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 305 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, Excelsior -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: PSV Eindhoven 1.4 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 22% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.5 – 1.1
Over 2.584%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.24X13%7.4626%16.31
Double chance
1X94%1.07X220%5.121287%1.15
Goals
Over 2.584%1.19Under 2.516%6.19BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Excelsior3-1 probability 7.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven15 August 20261-2
PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior10 January 20265-1
Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven27 September 20251-2
Excelsior – PSV Eindhoven2 April 20240-2
PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior13 January 20243-1
PSV Eindhoven – Excelsior8 April 20234-0