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Eredivisie · Matchday 32Sunday 9 May · 16:00 · Cars Jeans Stadion
ADO Den Haag17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
ADO 23%X 24%NEC 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • NEC Nijmegen lead by 132 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen -0.1, ADO Den Haag -0.7.
  • If ADO Den Haag score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.0
Over 2.562%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.38X24%4.20253%1.87
Double chance
1X47%2.15X277%1.301276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.63BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.61

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: ADO Den Haag · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

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