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Eredivisie · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Cambuur9th place
AZ 68%X 20%CAM 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 150 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Cambuur -0.1.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Cambuur score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.0
Over 2.567%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%5.04212%8.19
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.121280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.567%1.48Under 2.533%3.07BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Cambuur2-1 probability 9.5%

Form

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Head to head

Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar18 October 20262-2
AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur25 February 20232-1
Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar28 August 20220-1
AZ Alkmaar – Cambuur22 January 20220-0
Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar3 October 20211-3