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Eredivisie · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
TWE 65%X 21%NEC 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 131 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • Last 5 games: Twente 2.0 points per game, NEC Nijmegen 0.8.
  • If Twente score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.562%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X21%4.79214%7.30
Double chance
1X86%1.16X235%2.891279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.60BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Twente · Columns: NEC Nijmegen2-0 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Twente – NEC Nijmegen25 April 20261-1
NEC Nijmegen – Twente18 October 20253-3
Twente – NEC Nijmegen23 February 20252-0
NEC Nijmegen – Twente10 August 20241-2
NEC Nijmegen – Twente20 January 20241-0
Twente – NEC Nijmegen11 November 20233-3