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Eredivisie · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Groningen8th place
FOR 29%X 26%GRO 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Groningen -0.2, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Groningen score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Groningen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.40X26%3.81244%2.26
Double chance
1X56%1.80X271%1.421274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: Groningen1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Groningen – Fortuna Sittard28 August 20262-3
Groningen – Fortuna Sittard25 January 20261-2
Fortuna Sittard – Groningen25 October 20251-2
Groningen – Fortuna Sittard16 March 20251-0
Fortuna Sittard – Groningen26 October 20241-0
Fortuna Sittard – Groningen2 April 20233-1