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Eredivisie · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Ajax2nd place
PSV 55%X 24%AJA 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 71 rating points.
  • PSV Eindhoven take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.4
Over 2.571%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X24%4.20222%4.65
Double chance
1X78%1.27X245%2.211276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Under 2.529%3.41BTTS yes68%1.47BTTS no32%3.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Ajax2-1 probability 9.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Ajax – PSV Eindhoven5 September 20261-3
Ajax – PSV Eindhoven2 May 20262-2
PSV Eindhoven – Ajax21 September 20252-2
PSV Eindhoven – Ajax30 March 20250-2
Ajax – PSV Eindhoven2 November 20243-2
Ajax – PSV Eindhoven3 February 20241-1