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Eredivisie · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 16:00 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Willem II18th place
EXC 61%X 23%WIL 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Excelsior lead by 148 rating points.
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Willem II score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.3 – 1.2
Over 2.567%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.65X23%4.40217%6.01
Double chance
1X83%1.20X239%2.541277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.567%1.50Under 2.533%2.99BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.64

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: Willem II2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

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Head to head

Willem II – Excelsior5 September 20260-3