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Eredivisie · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Excelsior15th place
AZ 68%X 20%EXC 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Excelsior -1.1.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X20%5.03212%8.36
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.141280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.58BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Excelsior2-0 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar14 February 20261-2
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior21 January 20261-1
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior10 March 20244-0
Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar4 November 20231-1
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior10 February 20235-0
Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar23 October 20222-1