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Eredivisie · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
UTR 49%X 26%SPA 25%

Prediction

  • If Utrecht score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.3
Over 2.562%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.02X26%3.91225%4.00
Double chance
1X75%1.33X251%1.981274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.60BTTS yes62%1.60BTTS no38%2.66

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Utrecht22 August 20263-3
Utrecht – Sparta Rotterdam25 January 20260-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Utrecht17 August 20252-1
Utrecht – Sparta Rotterdam14 May 20251-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Utrecht3 November 20241-4
Utrecht – Sparta Rotterdam12 May 20240-1