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Eredivisie · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Goffertstadion
NEC Nijmegen13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Ajax2nd place
NEC 28%X 25%AJA 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 139 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, NEC Nijmegen 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.8
Over 2.561%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.58X25%3.95247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.88X272%1.391275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.70

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: NEC Nijmegen · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

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