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Eredivisie · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · MAC³PARK Stadion
PEC Zwolle14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Heerenveen7th place
PEC 26%X 26%HEE 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Heerenveen lead by 125 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Heerenveen 2.4 points per game, PEC Zwolle 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, PEC Zwolle -0.7.
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.82X26%3.86248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X274%1.351274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.40

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PEC Zwolle · Columns: Heerenveen1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle22 August 20260-2
Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle15 February 20264-2
PEC Zwolle – Heerenveen28 November 20252-1
PEC Zwolle – Heerenveen16 February 20251-1
Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle6 October 20241-1
Heerenveen – PEC Zwolle3 March 20242-0