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Eredivisie · Matchday 27Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Euroborg
Groningen8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
GRO 19%X 21%PSV 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 206 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, Groningen -0.2.
  • If Groningen score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.5 – 2.6
Over 2.577%
Both teams score72%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.14X21%4.81260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.49X281%1.241279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.577%1.30Under 2.523%4.31BTTS yes72%1.39BTTS no28%3.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Groningen · Columns: PSV Eindhoven1-2 probability 8.5%

Form

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Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – Groningen23 August 20265-1
Groningen – PSV Eindhoven8 February 20261-2
PSV Eindhoven – Groningen23 August 20254-2
Groningen – PSV Eindhoven5 April 20251-3
PSV Eindhoven – Groningen23 November 20245-0
PSV Eindhoven – Groningen11 February 20236-0