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Bundesliga · Matchday 22Saturday 20 February · 14:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Augsburg10th place
FCB 86%X 10%FCA 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 282 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Augsburg -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Bayern Munich 2.2 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 17% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.7 – 0.9
Over 2.585%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
186%1.17X10%9.9824%23.98
Double chance
1X96%1.04X214%7.051290%1.11
Goals
Over 2.585%1.18Under 2.516%6.45BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Augsburg3-0 probability 8.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Bayern Munich10 October 20262-2
Bayern Munich – Augsburg24 January 20261-2
Augsburg – Bayern Munich30 August 20252-3
Augsburg – Bayern Munich4 April 20251-3
Bayern Munich – Augsburg22 November 20243-0
Augsburg – Bayern Munich27 January 20242-3