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Bundesliga · Matchday 22Saturday 20 February · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Hoffenheim12th place
HSV 31%X 27%TSG 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 84 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.27X27%3.73243%2.35
Double chance
1X57%1.74X269%1.441273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.55

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Hoffenheim1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Hamburg10 October 20262-3
Hamburg – Hoffenheim25 April 20261-2
Hoffenheim – Hamburg13 December 20254-1