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Bundesliga · Matchday 22Saturday 20 February · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Freiburg3rd place
S04 20%X 26%SCF 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 152 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • Last 5 games: Freiburg 1.4 points per game, Schalke 04 0.4.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.5
Over 2.541%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.93X26%3.80253%1.87
Double chance
1X47%2.14X280%1.251274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.541%2.47Under 2.559%1.68BTTS yes44%2.28BTTS no56%1.78

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Freiburg0-1 probability 14.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Schalke 0411 October 20262-1
Freiburg – Schalke 0423 April 20234-0
Schalke 04 – Freiburg30 October 20220-2